Tropical Storm Vance
As of October 26 at 15:00 UTC, Tropical Storm Vance is about 265 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h). It is moving west-northwest at 7 miles per hour and its minimum central pressure is 997 millibars.
It has traveled about 666 mi (1,072 km) since NASA began tracking it on October 21, and its strongest winds so far were 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h) on October 24.
Intensity so far
From the National Hurricane Center
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest on Tuesday and north on Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.
Official forecasts, the forecast cone and warnings: nhc.noaa.gov.
The official forecast
Where the National Hurricane Center expects the center to be, and its strongest winds. The light area on the map is the cone: the center is expected to stay inside it about two-thirds of the time.
| When | Position | Winds | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 15.4°N 105.7°W | 65 mph · 100 km/h | Tropical storm |
| +12 h | 15.7°N 106.6°W | 50 mph · 85 km/h | Tropical storm |
| +24 h | 16.4°N 107.6°W | 45 mph · 75 km/h | Tropical storm |
| +36 h | 17.6°N 108.2°W | 45 mph · 75 km/h | Tropical storm |
| +48 h | 19.2°N 108.4°W | 45 mph · 75 km/h | Tropical storm |
| +60 h | 20.7°N 108.4°W | 40 mph · 65 km/h | Tropical storm |
| +72 h | 22.0°N 108.2°W | 35 mph · 55 km/h | Depression |
| +96 h | 24.1°N 108.0°W | 30 mph · 45 km/h | Depression |
Forecast issued 9:00 AM CST October 26, 2026. The cone and track are the NHC’s; the storm’s effects reach well beyond them.
Who could be affected
GDACS rates it a GREEN alert: limited humanitarian impact expected.
GDACS report. Source: GDACS, the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System of the United Nations and the European Commission (CC BY 4.0).
Seen from space
True color from the VIIRS instrument on the NOAA-20 satellite. The ring marks where the event was reported. Pictures: NASA Worldview (GIBS) from the daily satellite passes; clouds can hide the ground on some days.
The Saffir-Simpson scale
Hurricanes are rated 1 to 5 by their strongest sustained winds.
| Category | Winds | Damage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 74–95 mph | 119–153 km/h | Very dangerous winds will produce some damage |
| 2 | 96–110 mph | 154–177 km/h | Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage |
| 3 | 111–129 mph | 178–208 km/h | Devastating damage will occur (a major hurricane) |
| 4 | 130–156 mph | 209–251 km/h | Catastrophic damage will occur |
| 5 | 157 mph or higher | 252 km/h or higher | Catastrophic damage; most of the area uninhabitable for weeks or months |
Hurricane, typhoon or cyclone?
They are the same kind of storm: a spinning, warm-core system that feeds on warm ocean water. Over the North Atlantic and the eastern and central North Pacific it’s a hurricane; over the western North Pacific a typhoon; over the Indian Ocean and the South Pacific a cyclone. Below 39 mph (63 km/h) it’s a tropical depression.
Did you know?
The deadliest part. Storm surge, the ocean pushed ashore by the storm, is often the greatest threat to life, according to the National Hurricane Center.
For official forecasts and warnings, follow your national weather service (in the U.S., the National Hurricane Center).
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